Geller speaks at NCLGS on the potential effect of Sports Betting on Pari-mutuels (summary below) and Webinar for GiGse on Sports betting
Since my last Post, I’ve spoken to the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) on July 13 in Cleveland, Ohio, on “the potential impact of Sports Betting on Pari-mutuels”. On July 26 I was a panelist on a GiGse webinar entitled “U.S. Sports Betting & Wire Act – addressing key issues and questions for a successful regulation and operation of sports betting roll-out across states.”. It seems that sports betting is the flavor of the day in Gambling seminars. This post will deal with my NCLGS comments. I intend to post soon on my GiGse webinar comments.
At NCLGS, I pointed out that the absolute fiscal impact of sports betting at the Pari-Mutuels is likely to be negligible, but that the opportunity is great. Let me elaborate.
Nobody knows what is the total amount of wagering that currently occurs on sports betting. The most common numbers I’ve seen are between $100 and $300 billion, so let’s assume it’s $200 billion. Much of that is “sticky” meaning it will stay where it is, with illegal bookies and in office pools, etc. This is even more likely to occur if there are high taxes on sports betting. On the other hand, there may be large untapped demand, which would expand if sports betting is legalized. Anyone that pretends to know what the actual number is probably is just making it up…, excuse me, I meant to say is simply doing exact calculations on an inexact number, to come up with an educated projection. In other words, making it up. However, most of that expansion would occur in Internet sports betting, which, as I will explain in my comments on the GiGse webinar, is probably illegal. Since I can make up numbers as well as anyone else, my scientific calculation is that there will be approximately $150 billion in Sports betting. Just guessing.
The takeout (Gross Gaming Revenue, or GGR) on sports betting is generally around 4-7% in Las Vegas casinos. Let’s assume 5%. 5% of $150 billion is $7.5 billion. If states increase the takeout much more than that, too much of the gambling will stay illegal. If states raise tax rates above a certain unknown number (10-20%??), they will make it unprofitable for operators. Let’s just assume that the state tax rate is 12%, the Federal excise tax rate is .25% of the wagering (not the GGR), the sports leagues and individual teams ask for their percentage (either of GGR or wagering), and we see that there’s not a lot left for the operators to make money on. In Nevada, the expenses for running sports gambling before taxes and the other issues I’ve discussed approach 50%. Further assume that Nevada will continue to attract most big rollers for sports wagering, and we can see that there isn’t much left to spread around as profit for individual operators in the rest of the Country.
However, there is some good news for pari-mutuel operators, if they take advantage of it. I believe that at least initially, most states will restrict sports betting to their existing licensed gambling facilities. I think that this will occur because the existing facilities have substantial political clout in their states, because Internet sports wagering may be illegal (because of the Wire Act, which wasn’t thrown out when PASPA was), and because of a desire to at least start in a more conservative fashion. In Las Vegas, we’ve seen that sports betting isn’t that big of a revenue generator for the casinos. The casinos use sports betting to attract customers to their casinos, and they do this well. If pari-mutuels around the country take advantage of this, upgrade their facilities, diversify their gambling base, and use sports betting to attract new customers, then sports betting may indeed be a huge boost to pari-mutuels. I won’t hold my breath.
I was the Founder and National President of the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS), and I remain as Senior Adviser and Special Counsel to NCLGS today. I will be speaking on Pari-Mutuels and Sports Betting at their upcoming summer conference in Cleveland. Enclosed below is a Press release with the details of this meeting.
Legislators from Gaming States Announces Roster of Expert Speakers for July 13-15 Summer Meeting in Cleveland
(PRNewsfoto/National Council of Legislators)
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National Council of Legislators from Gaming States
Apr 24, 2018, 11:15 ET
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CLEVELAND, April 24, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) today announced the roster of speakers for its Summer Meeting that takes place July 13-15 in Cleveland. Registration is open to the public.
“Our slate of speakers includes many of the most respected and thought-provoking experts from different fields, including regulators, gaming operators, attorneys, financial analysts, problem-gambling specialists, and other gaming-related professionals,” said incoming NCLGS President William Coley, a senator from Ohio. “Everyone with a stake in the future of legalized gambling – in any form – should join dozens of state legislators and attend our Cleveland meeting.”
In addition to legislators who will chair Committee sessions, the following experts will speak in Committee and general sessions:
Andy Abboud, VP, Government Relations & Community Development, Las Vegas Sands
Joe Asher, CEO, William Hill US
Karl Bennison, Chief, Enforcement Division, Nevada Gaming Control Board
Dennis Berg, Director, Ohio Lottery
Byron Boothe, Vice President, Government Relations, Intralot
Michael Burke, Executive Director, Michigan Association on Problem Gambling
Anthony Cabot, Distinguished Fellow, University of Nevada-Las Vegas, William S. Boyd School of Law
Richard Carter, CEO, SBTech
Heather Chapman, Supervisory Psychologist/Director Gambling Program, Louis Stokes Cleveland VA Medical Center
Andy Cunningham, Director Global Strategy Integrity Services, Sportradar
Brian Egger, Senior Gaming & Lodging Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Steve Geller, Esquire, Geller Law Firm
Ken George Jr., Chair, Forest County Potawatomi Gaming Commission
Will Green, Senior Director, Research, American Gaming Association
Becky Harris, Chair, Nevada Gaming Control Board
Mark Hemmerle, VP, Legal and Compliance, Worldpay Gaming
Jeremy Kleiman, Member, Saiber LLC
Derek Longmeier, The Problem Gambling Network of Ohio, Executive Director
Tim Lowry, Partner, DLA Piper
John Maddox, Vice President Government Relations & Development, Caesars Entertainment
Art Manteris, Vice President, Race & Sports Operations, Station Casinos
Stephen Martino, Senior Vice President & Chief Compliance Officer, MGM Resorts International
Christopher McErlean, Vice President – Racing, Penn National Gaming
Dan Metelsky, Public Gaming Strategist and Public Policy Leader, Public Gaming Creative Strategies
Kevin Mullally, Vice President of Government Relations & General Counsel, GLI
Dave Payton, Vice President of Sales, AmTote International
Michael Pollock, Managing Director, Spectrum Gaming Group
F. Douglas Reed, Senior Pari-Mutuel Associate, Spectrum Gaming Group
Tim Richards Chief Product Strategy Officer, Everi
Lindsay Slader, Operations Manager, Geocomply
Ernie Stevens Jr., Chair, National Indian Gaming Association
Lovell Walker, Executive Director of Interactive Gaming Development, MGM Resorts International
Daniel Wallach, Shareholder, Becker & Poliakoff
Joseph Weinert, Executive Vice President, Spectrum Gaming Group
The NCLGS Summer Meeting agenda includes:
Six legislative committee sessions: Casinos, Emerging Forms of Gaming, Lotteries, Pari-Mutuels, Responsible Gaming, and State-Federal Relations
Two Masterclass panels conducted by the International Masters of Gaming Law focusing on sports betting and online gaming
Special general session panel examining the economic impacts of gaming
Friday evening welcome reception
Saturday afternoon tour of Intralot’s facility serving the Ohio Lottery
Optional Saturday night baseball game (via separate registration fee at special group rate): New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
To view the agenda, register, and book hotel rooms at the host Marriott at special attendee rates, visit http://www.nclgs.org/meetings.html.
For sponsorship information, contact Dawn Wagner at email@example.com. Legislators and others seeking NCLGS membership information should contact Wayne Marlin at firstname.lastname@example.org.
NCLGS is the only organization of state lawmakers that meets on a regular basis to discuss issues relating to gaming. Members of NCLGS serve as chairpersons or members of state legislative committees responsible for the regulation of gaming in their state legislative houses. NCLGS does not promote or oppose gaming but is primarily concerned with the regulation and economic and social impacts of the industry. The NCLGS Foundation is the educational and research arm of NCLGS. The 501(c)(3) non-profit is a source of non-partisan data on issues of gaming legislation and regulation.
Spectrum Gaming Group, which has performed advisory and consulting work for gaming operators, regulators and legislatures in 36 US states and territories and in 47 countries on six continents, serves as the Executive Director of NCLGS.
SOURCE National Council of Legislators from Gaming States
Will the Florida Legislature Call a Special Session in the near future to try and pass a gambling bill?
There has been discussion of whether we will have a Special Session in Tallahassee to discuss and hopefully pass comprehensive gambling legislation. I will discuss the possibility of whether a Special Session will be called, and, if so, whether or not it will result in actual legislation.
During the twenty years that I served in the Florida House and Senate, I learned the most basic rule of Special Sessions: “Don’t call one until you have an agreement on what the Legislature will pass.” I can say definitively as of today that the Legislature has not reached an agreement (yet), so as of today, they will not be calling a Special Session.
There are reasons why a Special Session may be called. There is a proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution known as Amendment Three which would take away from the Legislature most authority to amend gambling legislation and would instead require voter approval of any changes. This Legislation has been largely funded by the state Amusement Park industry (especially Disney), and has also received substantial support from the Seminole Indian Tribe. I will write more about Amendment Three in a future blog post, but it is sufficient for now to say that many in the Legislature think that a Special Session may be their last chance to make major revisions to the gambling laws of Florida.
Another reason to call a Special Session is more basic politics: Money. Fundraising. The Florida Legislature has finished its Regular Session and is not scheduled to meet again until after the November elections. The current Speaker of the House, Richard Corcoran, is widely believed to be running for Governor of Florida, although he hasn’t formally filed yet for that position. His best remaining chance of substantial fundraising is from the Gambling industry, if there are discussions of having a Special Session. The two negotiators from the House and Senate on gambling are Speaker-Designate Jose Oliva, and President-Designate Bill Galvano. Their duties as Speaker/President Designates are to raise money for their candidates in their respective Chambers. I regard all three people I’ve mentioned as honorable people, but the ability to raise some additional money for their caucuses should not be overlooked.
I have been told that the current President of the Florida Senate, Joe Negron, who is not running for anything and who has even discussed resigning his seat in the Senate when his term as President is up, has given a deadline to reach an agreement, as he doesn’t want this issue lingering. I was told that the original deadline expired last week, and that the Designates have a short time remaining to reach an agreement. As an aside, I must add an editorial comment that I think Joe Negron has been a great Senate President, and I personally would hate to see him resign and miss his last two years in office.
At the end of the day, I believe that there either will be no Special Session, or the Special Session will be unsuccessful. They’re simply too far apart. The Speaker, who certainly has been sounding like he’s running for Governor, needs to try and be the most conservative guy in the room to do well in a Republican primary. That means he needs to at least sound like he’s passed a conservative bill, reducing gambling. The Senate has been in favor of permitting slot machines in the approximately eight other counties where referendums have passed permitting slot machines, and the Senate has also been in favor of continuing “designated player games”, also known as “player-banked games”, as opposed to House-banked games. Those at least sound like expansions of gambling, and the proposed compromise of closing down some dormant pari-mutuel permits sounds like an insufficient reduction to be seen as a reduction in gambling, if the other items are added.
Many legislators don’t seem to understand the concept of exclusivity under the Indian Gambling Regulatory Act (IGRA). The Seminoles are currently paying the State of Florida nearly three hundred million dollars per year. In exchange for this, the Seminoles have been given statewide exclusivity on house-banked card games, and regional exclusivity on slot machines. Some legislators seem to think that slot machines can be expanded statewide without affecting the regional exclusivity, and thus the required payments under the existing Seminole Compact. I believe that they’re wrong.
When considering how far apart the House and Senate are, and when further adding in the affect that offering additional slot machines to pari-mutuels throughout the State would have on the Seminole Compact, I believe that there either will be no Special Session on Gambling, or, if there is, it will be unsuccessful.